ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 012052 SPC MCD 012052 MOZ000-KSZ000-012245- Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Areas affected...Central/east-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 012052Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two is possible along the cold front in central/east-central Kansas this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds and large hail are possible. A conditional threat for a brief tornado exists as well. A watch is not anticipated, but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have formed along the cold front in central Kansas. Surface winds remain backed near the boundary and have contributed to 35-40 kts of shear. Given the weak forcing, this environment would support isolated splitting supercells. Mid-level lapse rates are quite modest, but a rotating cell could produce large hail. Damaging winds would also be possible. Given the backed surface winds, a brief tornado could occur should stronger supercell favorably interact with the boundary. With only a couple marginal supercells expected, no watch is anticipated. ..Wendt/Grams.. 07/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38319800 38589737 38699600 38449481 37969454 37779536 37749738 37879785 38319800 NNNN