ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032046 
SPC MCD 032046 
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-032145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 032046Z - 032145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has shown recent signs of
organization, which may allow for a severe wind/hail threat to
persist across southeastern South Dakota. A watch is possible to
address this concern.

DISCUSSION...A convective cluster across eastern SD has shown signs
of intensification and improved organization over the past 1-2
hours. Per regional radar imagery, a pair of more discrete updrafts
have developed on the outflow of an originally elevated cluster of
storms, and have displayed notable deviant propagation to the
southeast within the past 30-60 minutes. This suggests that this
convection is most likely rooted in the boundary-layer despite
lingering MLCIN. Building cumulus ahead of the storms and
along/south of the residual outflow boundary suggest that inhibition
is decreasing, and this trend should continue through the late
afternoon. Although this activity is on the periphery of steeper
mid-level lapse rates and better instability to the west, the
downstream environment is characterized by adequate MLCAPE and 40-50
knots of effective bulk shear. This will be favorable for
maintaining surface-based convection through the afternoon with an
attendant severe wind and large hail threat. Upscale growth into a
self-propagating organized cluster is possible, which may heighten
the severe wind potential. Trends will continue to be monitored, and
a watch is possible for east and southeast SD.

..Moore/Grams.. 07/03/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   44549921 44689861 44699765 44329669 43989646 43139646
            42659671 42799818 43099874 43519923 43869937 44409939
            44549921 

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