ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 040028 
SPC MCD 040028 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North
Dakota...Far Western Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 040028Z - 040300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase across parts of northeast
South Dakota and southeast North Dakota over the next couple of
hours. Weather watch issuance may become necessary across parts of
the eastern Dakotas into far western Minnesota later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery shows an east-to-west corridor
of convective development currently taking place across northeast
South Dakota. This corridor is located within an area of outflow,
near a minimum of instability from earlier storms. Further to the
north, into southeast North Dakota, surface heating into the lower
80s F, has resulted in moderate destabilization. The RAP suggests
MLCAPE is currently in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range across southeast
North Dakota. The HRRR develops storms near Mobridge, South Dakota
later this evening, and moves a small cluster east-northeastward
across southeast North Dakota. The instability combined with
moderate deep-layer shear, evident on WSR-88D VWPs, will be
favorable for a severe threat. Steep mid-level lapse rates will make
isolated large hail possible with rotating cells. Wind damage will
may also occur, especially if convective coverage increases later
this evening.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45099718 45149849 45209938 45419994 45660010 45930017
            46310022 46630000 46889946 47079860 47249765 47239719
            47159684 46929646 46519625 46069623 45459647 45099718 

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