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Mesoscale Discussion 1386
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...far southern Minnesota into central Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...438...

   Valid 052209Z - 052315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437, 438

   SUMMARY...A derecho is expected to maintain some structure while
   traversing the MN/IA border for the next couple of hours, with
   severe winds still a concern. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a
   tornado also remain possible with storms preceding the derecho.

   DISCUSSION...A derecho-producing MCS, with a considerable history of
   producing significant severe winds, continues to progress along the
   IA/MN border. This MCS has a well-defined mesovortex along the
   northern periphery of a bow echo, where severe winds (some
   significant) continue to be reported. It is uncertain how long the
   MCS will maintain a classic bow-echo structure since the bow is
   beginning to interact with preceding storms. Though synoptic forcing
   remains quite weak, a corridor of extreme buoyancy resides ahead of
   the MCS, overspread by 35-40 kts of effective bulk shear, with the
   bulk shear vectors aligned roughly normal to the MCS bow. Current
   FSD radar shows very strong outbound velocity signatures with the
   bow, so damaging gusts (perhaps some significant) remain possible
   over the next 1-3 hours. Even if the derecho-MCS structure is
   disrupted by the preceding convection, the current CAPE/shear
   parameter space supports continued severe potential with any mature
   storms through the afternoon.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/05/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42229674 42659609 43079558 43379540 43709519 43969457
               44049349 43879256 43399156 43159142 42849136 42489157
               42149201 41879274 41829410 41789498 41789584 42229674 

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