|Mesoscale Discussion 1390|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022
Areas affected...portions of far southern Minnesota into central
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438...440...
Valid 052349Z - 060115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438, 440
SUMMARY...The severe threat associated with a bow-echo MCS continues
across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438, towards western parts of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440. Widespread severe gusts remain a
concern and a couple of significant gusts are still possible over
the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A mature derecho-producing MCS continues to translate
across far southern MN into central IA with a recent history of
producing measured severe wind gusts. The 23Z mesoanalysis still
shows a reservoir of extreme instability overspread by 35 kts of
effective bulk shear out ahead of the MCS. The MCS bow remains
north-south oriented and is progressing due east. Since the
deep-layer shear vectors are oriented roughly normal to the MCS, the
ambient CAPE/shear parameter space will continue to support a
bow-echo structure with widespread strong to severe wind gusts.
Given the magnitude of MLCAPE ahead of the MCS and organized nature
of the MCS, a couple of significant severe wind gusts are still
possible into the early evening hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 41299573 42279430 42969385 43289373 43499336 43499285
43339207 42969144 42459141 41929175 41499231 41189306
41009360 40959435 41039517 41299573
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