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Mesoscale Discussion 1391
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1391
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

   Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Iowa...far
   southern Wisconsin...far northern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440...

   Valid 060141Z - 060315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 440
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 440. Damaging gusts are the primary threat with all storms,
   though an instance or two of severe hail remains possible.

   DISCUSSION...A bow-echo MCS continues to progress eastward across
   central into eastern IA, with relatively more discrete multicellular
   storms persisting along a baroclinic zone extending eastward to the
   WI/IL border. Though boundary-layer stabilization has begun, surface
   temperatures remain in the upper 80s F, with surface dewpoints
   between 75-80 F. Given the widespread 6.5 C/km tropospheric lapse
   rates overspreading the aforementioned moisture across the east-west
   oriented baroclinic zone, 4000 J/kg MLCAPE remains in place. As
   such, the bow-echo MCS and preceding convection should continue with
   some vigor for at least a few more hours before more appreciable
   MLCINH sets in. For the next few hours, at least a few damaging
   winds gusts are possible, though an instance or two of marginally
   severe hail are possible with the more dominant updrafts (especially
   with the storms preceding the bow-echo) given the magnitude of CAPE
   present.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/06/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   41619260 42379224 42709217 43319194 43519144 43569079
               43459005 43198921 42698815 42278772 41788776 41448815
               41288921 41309023 41419160 41619260 

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Page last modified: July 06, 2022
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