ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062134 COR
SPC MCD 062134 COR
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-062230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

Areas affected...northern SC...western and central
NC...south-central into southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 062134Z - 062230Z

CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED HEADER

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered wind damage is likely through
the mid evening.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and 10-km CAPPI reflectivity shows several
clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms from parts of central VA
south-southwest into the Upstate of SC.  The airmass ahead of these
storms is very unstable (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE).  The hot surface
temperatures (near 100 deg f) late this afternoon coupled with
dewpoints in the lower 70s are combining to foster an environment
featuring steep low-level lapse rates and high PW.  The mean
west-northwesterly flow around the mid-level high over the TN Valley
will favor southeast storm motions.  Water-loaded downdrafts capable
of isolated to widely scattered gusts (45-65 mph) will be common
with the more intense cores.  Pockets of wind damage will likely
result with gusts approaching severe limits.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   37847863 37517741 36847662 35737753 33938111 34228225
            34718295 35268277 36288154 36458043 37847863 

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