Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022
Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into extreme western
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...
Valid 070125Z - 070330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444
SUMMARY...A couple severe wind gusts are the primary concern for the
duration of the severe threat, though a brief instance of severe
hail is possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the next
hour with a rotating storm in Washington County Colorado.
DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters and occasional transient
supercells have percolated in intensity across the Colorado Front
Range over the past couple of hours, with brief instances of large
hail, a couple of severe gusts, and a tornado reported in Morgan
County, CO. Though mid-level lapse rates are mediocre, up to 8 C/km
low-level lapse rates and 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear suggest
that storms may remain organized for a couple more hours, before
nocturnal cooling diminishes the low-level lapse rates/overall
buoyancy and limits the severe threat. Given the steep low-level
lapse rates, severe gusts currently appear to be the main threat,
though a brief instance of large hail is still possible. Occasional
low-level rotation has been accompanying a transient supercell
across Washington County, CO and a brief tornado remains possible
over the next hour while some surface-based buoyancy remains.
The severe threat is expected to gradually wane after sunset and a
downstream WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 38190211 38030279 38040412 38200473 38340479 39780440
40090410 40500312 40420235 40180172 39720139 39620139