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Mesoscale Discussion 1408
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1408
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into extreme western

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444...

   Valid 070125Z - 070330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 444

   SUMMARY...A couple severe wind gusts are the primary concern for the
   duration of the severe threat, though a brief instance of severe
   hail is possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the next
   hour with a rotating storm in Washington County Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular storm clusters and occasional transient
   supercells have percolated in intensity across the Colorado Front
   Range over the past couple of hours, with brief instances of large
   hail, a couple of severe gusts, and a tornado reported in Morgan
   County, CO. Though mid-level lapse rates are mediocre, up to 8 C/km
   low-level lapse rates and 35-50 kts of effective bulk shear suggest
   that storms may remain organized for a couple more hours, before
   nocturnal cooling diminishes the low-level lapse rates/overall
   buoyancy and limits the severe threat. Given the steep low-level
   lapse rates, severe gusts currently appear to be the main threat,
   though a brief instance of large hail is still possible. Occasional
   low-level rotation has been accompanying a transient supercell
   across Washington County, CO and a brief tornado remains possible
   over the next hour while some surface-based buoyancy remains.

   The severe threat is expected to gradually wane after sunset and a
   downstream WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38190211 38030279 38040412 38200473 38340479 39780440
               40090410 40500312 40420235 40180172 39720139 39620139
               38770166 38190211 

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