Mesoscale Discussion 1414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Thu Jul 07 2022

   Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...far northeast
   Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 080052Z - 080245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of a weak surface
   front could become sufficiently intense to pose a threat for severe
   wind, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. This threat will likely
   remain too limited to warrant a watch.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms have continued to
   develop along and ahead of a weak surface cold front across
   southeast NE. While most of this convection has remained weak with
   little lightning, a few more intense cells have shown transient
   signs of weak low-level rotation over the past hour. The environment
   across the NE/KS/MO/IA region is sufficiently buoyant for
   thunderstorm development, and the southeast to easterly winds in the
   lowest 1 km (sampled by surface observations, regional VWPs and
   ACARs soundings within the past couple of hours) is supporting 30-35
   knots of effective bulk shear. The ACARs sounding and the 00 UTC TOP
   RAOB also revealed around 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH, which is
   slightly higher than recent mesoanalyses are indicating. Given this
   environment and recent observed trends, a brief/weak tornado with
   the more robust updrafts is possible. However, confidence in the
   overall severe threat is low given the weak lift, meager storm
   intensities, and relatively poor storm longevity within this
   environment. A watch is not expected.

   ..Moore/Hart.. 07/08/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

   LAT...LON   41559536 41309454 40659419 39959437 39739504 39729637
               39839736 40229803 40869792 41269733 41599648 41559536