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Mesoscale Discussion 1425
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1425
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Fri Jul 08 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

   Valid 090430Z - 090600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Intense squall line with embedded bowing structures will
   pose a risk of significant wind damage.

   DISCUSSION...An intense squall line currently extends across
   western/central Valley  and central Garfield counties MT, and is
   moving east-northeastward at ~50 knots.  The air mass ahead of the
   storms remains very moist (70+ dewpoints) and unstable with forecast
   soundings showing steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE values of
   3500-4000 J/kg.  Sufficient westerly flow aloft and increasing
   mesoscale organization suggest the potential for this bowing
   structure to maintain significant intensity as it tracks across WW
   449 and into northwest ND.  The KGGW VAD profile also shows
   relatively strong low-level winds, which could result in isolated
   and brief QLCS spin-ups along the leading edge of the most intense
   bow structures.

   ..Hart.. 07/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46960697 48030689 48890734 49000581 48740501 48050495
               47410537 46970625 46890669 46960697 

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Page last modified: July 09, 2022
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