Mesoscale Discussion 1431
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Sat Jul 09 2022

   Areas affected...central and eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...

   Valid 100012Z - 100315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A substantial severe threat will evolve this evening
   across central and eastern Montana, with destructive winds and hail
   expected. A new watch is likely east of WW 452.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase in intensity and coverage
   over central MT, with several cells now exhibiting a
   rightward/eastward motion as of 00Z. As height falls with the
   shortwave trough continue this evening, low-level easterlies will
   increase, with 850 mb winds providing moist storm relative inflow.
   As this occurs, an MCS may eventually materialize, with a threat of
   wind-driven hail and damaging winds. Individual cells may also
   produce very large hail in excess of 2.00" diameter. The very steep
   lapse rates aloft combined with strong shear should maintain the
   severe threat beyond 06Z despite small boundary-layer inhibition
   from cooling, eventually entering ND later tonight.

   ..Jewell.. 07/10/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48491092 49000936 49010403 46200404 46241004 46451120
               46831159 47541159 48491092