ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101736 
SPC MCD 101736 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022

Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central MN...Far Northeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 101736Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible with the ongoing thunderstorms,
with some potential for damaging wind gusts as the afternoon
progress. A watch may eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed over southeast
SD and adjacent northwest MN, within the low-level warm-air
advection to the west of the ongoing convective line over northeast
MN. Air mass is this region is characterized by steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderate vertical shear. Modest low-level stability
is currently in place, contributing to the elevated character of the
ongoing storms. However, diurnal heating and moisture advection
should help destabilize the low-levels while steep mid-level lapse
rates persist. As a result, the overall environment will gradually
become more favorable for surface-based storms throughout the
afternoon.

The current environment favors hail as the primary severe risk, but
the damaging wind potential should gradually increase as the
low-levels destabilize. Convective evolution of this cluster is
uncertain, but some potential for further organization/upscale
growth exists. Convective trends will be monitored closely for
potential watch issuance downstream across portions of southeast ND,
far northeast SD, and northwest/west-central MN.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46379849 47129807 47219690 47379477 46169505 45659624
            45919805 46379849 

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