ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111630 
SPC MCD 111630 
MIZ000-111830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

Areas affected...Southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111630Z - 111830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next
hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves
into southwest Lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms has intensified as it moves over
southern Lake Michigan. Low-level stability in place suggests these
storms are currently elevated. The downstream air mass across
southwest Lower MI is currently characterized by upper 70s
temperatures, low 60s dewpoints, and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
(based on recent mesoanalysis). Some additional heating/moistening
of the low-levels is anticipated, but low-level stability should
persist, likely limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, some
isolated gusty winds appear probable as occasional downbursts
penetrate the low-level stability. Limited severe coverage should
preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41968656 42398630 42938622 43388643 43538623 43398555
            43038505 42458502 41928536 41798622 41968656 

NNNN