Mesoscale Discussion 1451
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern IL...Western/Central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112040Z - 112245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus has been observed over the last hour
   or so along the weak wind shift/area of low-level convergence over
   central IL. Recent mesoanalysis suggests some convective inhibition
   remains in place, which is likely responsible for the lack of
   convective initiation and somewhat flat appearance to the cumulus
   thus far. Some potential for convective initiation will persist into
   the late afternoon as this area of low-level convergence shifts
   southeastward. Warm low to mid-level temperatures and weak low-level
   convergence will likely limit the overall thunderstorm coverage,
   duration and intensity. Vertical shear is strong enough to support
   an isolated severe threat if updrafts can mature. Primary severe
   threat would be damaging wind gusts, although some isolated hail is
   possible too.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39668979 40498785 40898615 39988604 38948919 39668979