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Mesoscale Discussion 1507
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1507
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022

   Areas affected...Northeast MN...MN Arrowhead

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

   Valid 180553Z - 180730Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472

   SUMMARY...Ongoing convective line is expected to move into more of
   the MN Arrowhead over the next hour. Strong to severe wind gusts and
   large hail are possible within this line.

   DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to progress
   southward/southeastward across far northwest Ontario towards the
   international border. The strongest updrafts currently exist within
   the western portion of this line, in Lake of the Woods County MN.
   These updrafts are located within a region of very strong buoyancy
   (i.e. MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) and moderate vertical shear, and could
   produce very large hail as well as strong wind gusts. Buoyancy
   decreases with eastern extent, with mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE
   decreases from around 3000 J/kg over Lake of the Woods County to 500
   J/kg over Lake County. 

   As such, the expectation is for the most robust storms to remain
   over north-central MN, with waning updraft intensity eastward over
   the MN Arrowhead. Even so, the organized character of the ongoing,
   line coupled with an environment that supports strong downbursts,
   could still promote strong to severe wind gusts as the outflow
   surges southward into the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Current storm
   motion is around 40 kt, which brings the middle of the line into
   central St. Louis County around 07Z.

   ..Mosier.. 07/18/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48749441 48699302 48089150 47279182 47159315 47469428

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