Mesoscale Discussion 1534
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022

   Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Virginia and central
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211638Z - 211845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon
   across central portions of North Carolina and Virginia.  Potential
   for locally damaging winds with these storms may warrant WW
   consideration.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite loop shows a relative minimum
   in cloud cover from portions of central North Carolina northward
   across central Virginia, south of the northern Virginia cold front
   and northeast of an MCV crossing west-central North Carolina.  With
   surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s across this region,
   heating has pushed mixed-layer CAPE values into the 2000 to 2500
   J/kg range.  

   Initial development of storms within this destabilizing environment
   is occurring near the aforementioned MCV.  With time, storm coverage
   is expected to expand northeastward to the vicinity of the slowly
   southeastward-advancing cold front.  Given moderate westerly flow at
   low to mid levels, and some increase in the mid-level winds with
   time, organized storms -- and some later upscale growth into bands
   -- is expected.  Given accompanying/increasing potential for locally
   damaging wind gusts, WW may become needed over the next hour or so.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 07/21/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35398098 36198016 36397956 36997906 37817891 38057885
               38867715 38647624 37717624 36577687 35427899 35398098