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Mesoscale Discussion 1591
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MD 1591 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1591
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022

   Areas affected...Southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251905Z - 252100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may increase in
   coverage across southwest South Dakota into northwest Nebraska. A
   couple of strong to severe storms appear possible given
   environmental parameters, and may pose an isolated hail/wind risk.
   This threat will remain limited enough to negate the need for a

   DISCUSSION...A decaying MCV remains evident in regional reflectivity
   and visible satellite imagery moving across northwest SD. Over the
   past 1-2 hours, signs of destabilization have been evident with a
   notable cumulus field developing across the region and several
   convective towers deepening along weak surface confluence axes in
   the vicinity of the MCV. A few attempts at convective initiation
   have been noted, but these attempts have largely been short lived,
   likely owing to the relatively weak forcing for ascent and some
   lingering inhibition noted in forecast soundings and hinted at by
   visible imagery as areas of more shallow/stunted cumulus.

   Despite the recent struggles, temperatures continue to climb into
   the mid/upper 70s with mesoanalysis estimates showing steady
   destabilization with MLCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg.
   Furthermore, southeasterly low-level winds ahead of the MCV
   juxtaposed with 30-45 knot mid-level winds is supporting around
   30-40 knots of effective bulk shear with somewhat elongated
   hodographs. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment is supportive
   of organized convection if a robust storm can become established.
   The expectation is that additional thunderstorms develop through the
   afternoon in the vicinity of the MCV and/or along one of the
   peripheral surface boundaries with a couple of more organized strong
   to severe storms that may pose a hail/wind threat. Given the weak
   forcing for ascent, this potential should remain limited enough to
   preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/25/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   44240407 44640379 44850295 44910164 44780082 44560025
               43940001 43320013 42860046 42760122 42780211 43120339
               43590382 44240407 

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