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Mesoscale Discussion 1648
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MD 1648 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1648
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

   Areas affected...North-central PA into southern/central NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041619Z - 041815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible as thunderstorms
   spread northeastward this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An arc of convection has moved from western into
   north-central PA through the morning, with occasional 30-35 kt gusts
   noted. While deep-layer shear is generally weak across the region,
   unidirectional southwesterly flow may be sufficient to maintain
   loosely organized convection in association with this arc and
   related cold pool as it moves northeastward into a destabilizing
   environment, with an attendant threat of locally damaging wind
   gusts. Additional storm development is expected downstream into
   parts of southern/central NY this afternoon, which may also pose a
   localized damaging wind threat as low-level lapse rates steepen with
   time. With the threat expected to remain relatively isolated and
   disorganized, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42647697 43107539 43147492 42867454 42197508 41507610
               41137662 40967706 40777809 41447879 41787899 42647697 

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