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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of the central Appalachians into the Mid

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041714Z - 041915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated damaging winds will increase in
   coverage this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing early this afternoon across
   eastern WV and northwest VA, with some increasing cumulus also noted
   across southern VA. Strong diurnal heating and rich low-level
   moisture will support MLCAPE increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg
   across the region this afternoon, as MLCINH erodes and storm
   coverage continues to increase with time. Deep-layer shear is
   generally expected to remain weak, but the thermodynamic environment
   will support a threat of isolated and potentially damaging downburst
   winds in association with the strongest storms. 

   Midlevel cloudiness associated with an approaching MCV may result in
   a relative minimum in storm coverage across parts of western VA, but
   some potential exists for a loosely organized storm cluster to
   develop and spread across northern VA into adjacent portions of MD,
   as outflows consolidate with time. Due to the generally disorganized
   nature of the threat, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this

   ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38468071 39207948 39657882 39687754 39667714 38847666
               38137656 37767666 37707725 37777777 37937799 38157825
               38397869 38507916 38277993 38188027 38098056 38068093
               38248100 38468071 

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