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Mesoscale Discussion 1651
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1651
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern PA into southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041927Z - 042130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for primarily isolated damaging gusts will
   spread northeastward this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Sporadic damaging winds and observed gusts up to 40-45
   mph have been noted recently when convection spreading northeastward
   across northeast PA into central/southern NY. Deep-layer shear
   remains weak across the region, but unidirectional southwesterly
   flow will continue to support occasionally vigorous redevelopment
   along a northeastward-propagating cold pool. Moderate downstream
   instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) and steep low-level lapse
   rates will continue to support a threat of localized damaging wind
   gusts as storms spread toward southern New England through the
   afternoon. With the threat still expected to be relatively
   disorganized, watch issuance remains unlikely.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 08/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   43067470 43447409 43567356 43607288 43487249 42997245
               42627273 42337327 41667438 41197506 40517590 40047653
               39867703 39907755 40167770 41067696 41617636 42247569
               42707524 43067470 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2022
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