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Mesoscale Discussion 1652
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1652
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Thu Aug 04 2022

   Areas affected...southwest and central MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042000Z - 042200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will continue to develop over
   southwest MT and move northeast into central MT through the late
   afternoon and early evening.  Isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
   the primary hazard.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing
   thunderstorms over the high terrain of southwest MT to the southeast
   of a mid-level low centered over British Columbia.  Surface
   observations over southwest and central MT indicate temperatures
   have risen into the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower 40s,
   yielding temperature-dewpoint depressions exceeding 50 degrees F. 
   RAP forecast soundings show scant buoyancy (less than 250 J/kg
   MLCAPE) atop a very deeply mixed boundary layer featuring dry
   adiabatic lapse rates.  The more water-laden cores will
   correspondingly have greater evaporative-cooling potential and an
   associated risk for microbursts capable of isolated severe gusts
   later this afternoon into the early evening.  The coverage and
   magnitude of the severe risk will preclude a severe thunderstorm
   watch.

   ..Smith/Grams.. 08/04/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45831236 47141053 47320915 46730833 46030868 44971152
               45031212 45361244 45831236 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2022
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