Mesoscale Discussion 1668
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1143 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern MD...Southern PA...DE...NJ...Southern
   NY..CT...MA...RI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 091643Z - 091845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon
   from the northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over southern ME,
   with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across the
   central Hudson Valley into central PA. A weak trough also precedes
   this front. extending southward through central MA and central CT
   into northern NJ and far eastern PA. Current surface observations
   also reveal dewpoints in the 70s areawide, with numerous locations
   reporting dewpoints in mid 70s.   

   Cumulus continues to deepen in the vicinity of the surface trough as
   the air mass heats and destabilizes. This trend is expected to
   persist throughout the afternoon, resulting in the development of
   scattered thunderstorms. The stronger mid-level flow will be over
   ME, displaced north of the stronger buoyancy, which is expected
   across the Delmarva, eastern PA, and NJ. Additionally, the overall
   instability will be limited by weak mid-level lapse rates and warm
   thermodynamic profiles. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled
   with a very moist air mass could still support locally damaging wind
   gusts with any stronger storms.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 08/09/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38717592 39607707 40517661 42477238 41977151 40807305
               39687417 38757492 38717592