Mesoscale Discussion 1731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southern and eastern Minnesota and
   adjacent portions of northern Iowa and western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272355Z - 280200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for
   strong, to occasionally marginally severe (greater than 50 kt) wind
   gusts, while approaching the Greater Minneapolis area through 8-9 PM
   CDT.  It still appears unlikely that this will require a severe
   weather watch, but trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of broad, weak mid-level troughing slowly
   progressing northeastward into and across the middle Missouri
   Valley, a modest cluster of thunderstorms has gradually evolved the
   past few hours.  This may be just to the northeast of cyclonic
   vorticity maximum across northwestern Iowa, but activity is embedded
   within broadly anticyclonic low-level flow (from near the surface
   through around 700 mb), around the western periphery of ridging
   centered near the Mid Atlantic.

   Still, this regime appears to include 30-40 kt flow in the 850-700
   mb layer.  While relatively warm, moist adiabatic profiles in the
   500-300 mb layer may be suppressing updraft strength somewhat,
   unsaturated profiles with relatively steep lapse rates in the lowest
   few kilometers appear to be aiding the downward transfer of higher
   momentum to the surface.  This may continue another couple of hours,
   as the cluster of thunderstorms progresses northeastward,
   across/south and east of the Greater Minneapolis area through
   01-03Z.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 08/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   44259446 44979363 45159240 44669137 43639246 43269359
               43319402 44259446