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Mesoscale Discussion 1822
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1822
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0923 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern WV...Southwest/South-Central
   PA...Western/Central MD...Northern VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251423Z - 251630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
   from eastern WV/southwest PA eastward into south-central PA,
   northern VA, and western/central MD over the next few hours. Bowing
   line segments capable of damaging wind gusts are possible, and a
   watch may be needed to cover this severe potential.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows modest clearing across
   northern WV and adjacent south-central PA, in between a southwest to
   northwest oriented stratus band and more agitated/vertically
   developed clouds farther west. The strongest storm currently ongoing
   developed along the leading edge of the westernmost cloudiness,
   which appears to be associated with ascent attendant to a speed max
   moving through the westerly flow aloft. 

   Expectation is for additional storm development in a similar
   pattern, with the air mass destabilizing amid the brief heating just
   ahead of this ascent. As such, the air mass is only expected to be
   modestly buoyant. However, the limited buoyancy will likely be
   compensated somewhat by the moderate to strong mid-level flow moving
   over the region. Current mesoanalysis estimates 0-3 km bulk shear
   from 40 to 50 kt, which is supported by the recent PBZ and CTP VADs
   which sampled 51 kt and 46 kt, respectively. These kinematic
   conditions will support a threat for damaging gusts with bowing line
   segments as the ascent moves eastward throughout the afternoon.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39678006 40477855 40537751 40247707 39247667 38407740
               38457934 38968032 39678006 

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