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Mesoscale Discussion 1827
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1827
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

   Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast VA...VA Tidewater

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251939Z - 252145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail is possible for the
   next hour or so. Gradually decreasing storm intensity anticipated

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a few stronger storms
   moving across south-central VA, along the leading edge of the
   greater forcing for ascent moving across the region. Isolated
   damaging wind gusts and/or hail is possible with these storms for
   the next hour or so. Downstream air mass across southeast VA/VA
   Tidewater has heating into the mid to upper 80s amid strong diurnal
   heating and boundary-layer mixing. This mixing has resulted in
   dewpoints generally in the mid 50s, which is limiting air mass
   destabilization. As a result, the expectation is for the ongoing
   storms to gradually diminish as they move eastward into the more
   stable air mass downstream.

   ..Mosier/Thompson.. 09/25/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37237849 37767809 38067751 38067689 37937664 37727646
               37437632 37157625 36847630 36597656 36587699 36587903

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