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Mesoscale Discussion 1829
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1829
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

   Areas affected...Eastern TN and southeast KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252031Z - 252230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be possible as
   storms track eastward this afternoon. A watch is not currently

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from OHX shows a broken band of
   loosely organized splitting cells tracking eastward ahead of cold
   front moving through Middle TN. OHX VWP data and the BNA 18Z
   observed sounding show strong westerly flow aloft, resulting in a
   long/straight hodograph characterized by 40-50 kt of effective
   shear. Ahead of the convection, cloud clearing has allowed
   temperatures to warm into the middle/upper 70s amid middle 60s
   dewpoints. These boundary-layer conditions, combined with the
   favorable deep-layer shear could result in some modest
   intensification of the ongoing convection through the afternoon. The
   primary concern will be large hail and locally severe gusts with any
   splitting supercell structures or organized clusters. A watch is not
   currently expected, though trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 09/25/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35948603 36528550 37088469 37388399 37498335 37368262
               37088234 36588257 35968303 35288442 35388527 35668591

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