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Mesoscale Discussion 1833
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1833
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Areas affected...FL Keys and South FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 544...

   Valid 271623Z - 271730Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 544 continues.

   SUMMARY...Relative lull in tornado potential in the near term due to
   outflow-dominant character of convection near Miami.  An uptick in
   supercell tornado potential is possible later this afternoon once
   supercell structure develops in the outer bands of Hurricane Ian.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery trends from KAMX and KBYX show a
   lack of supercell structure of the FL Keys and an amassing of
   convection immediately east of Biscayne Bay.  The mesoscale
   environment remains conditionally supportive of supercells from the
   FL Straits north into the southern part of the Everglades as the
   northern periphery of mid-upper 70s deg F dewpoints slowly
   penetrates northward.  Some enlargement in the hodographs will
   likely continue this afternoon as the outer wind envelope continues
   to approach the FL Keys and South FL this afternoon into the
   evening.  Concurrently, the risk for a supercell tornado will
   probably increase towards the late afternoon after a relative lull.

   ..Smith.. 09/27/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   24648220 24868136 25408065 25938023 25667986 24968019
               24468098 24278194 24648220 

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