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Mesoscale Discussion 1834
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1834
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast South Florida and the
   middle/upper Keys

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 544...

   Valid 271904Z - 272030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 544 continues.

   SUMMARY...The environment will continue to become more conditionally
   favorable for a couple torndadoes across parts of Miami-Dade County,
   Broward County, and the middle/upper Keys this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of an earlier burst of convection over
   South Florida and the middle/upper Keys, modest cloud thinning has
   allowed the boundary layer to recover/destabilize (lower 80s surface
   temperatures) amid upper 70s dewpoints. The AMX and BYX VWPs show a
   gradual increase in low-level flow and related enlargement of
   clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (around 200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km
   SRH). During the next few hours, low-level shear should continue to
   increase, with a corresponding increase in tornado potential given
   the surface-based instability over the area. Therefore, if any
   cellular convection can develop or move into this environment this
   afternoon, a couple tornadoes will be possible. Currently,
   confidence in this scenario is low given a lack of cellular
   development upstream.

   ..Weinman.. 09/27/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   25308018 24978037 24608098 24678118 25478101 25788094
               25918086 26048074 26088048 26088024 25978003 25768005

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