Mesoscale Discussion 1838
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0846 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of south and central Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 545...

   Valid 280146Z - 280515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 545 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong low-level wind fields have supported tornadic
   activity late this afternoon into early evening in southeastern
   Florida. Wind fields will remain favorable for tornadoes into the
   overnight. Some northward expansion of WW 545 may become necessary
   later tonight.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete convection within an outer band produced
   a few radar confirmed tornadoes north of the Miami metro area within
   the last few hours. That convection has since become more linear as
   it has moved north into areas of lesser buoyancy. There is still
   discrete convection within this band farther offshore, east of
   Miami. With time, this band may continue northwestward and impact
   parts of the east-central Florida coast. Additional weaker bands of
   cellular convection continue to move into southern Florida as well.
   Regional VWP data continue to suggest that the environment remains
   favorable for tornadoes, particularly where dewpoints remain in the
   mid/upper 70s F. Buoyancy will likely be maximized within the
   eastern half of the Peninsula. Temperatures have actually increased
   slightly in southeast Florida as the rain band has moved out of the
   area.

   Wind fields north of WW 545 will eventually become more favorable as
   Hurricane Ian continues to move northward. The KTBW VWP has shown an
   increase in low-level SRH over the past couple of hours and this
   trend is expected to continue through the overnight. Some local
   areal extension of 545 may become necessary later tonight.

   ..Wendt.. 09/28/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25838003 25278022 24888043 24538123 24398170 24568192
               24818134 25008104 25108101 25748185 26958263 27668235
               28288097 27988015 26177993 25838003