Mesoscale Discussion 1842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 546...

   Valid 281727Z - 281915Z

   CORRECTED FOR WIND DIRECTION AT MELBOURNE

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of a few tornadoes should gradually increase
   across parts of central and east-central FL this afternoon, with a
   potential focus from Lake Okeechobee northward to near Orlando FL
   during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate upper 70s/lower
   80s surface temperatures from Lake Okeechobee northeastward toward
   Melbourne FL, where at least modest cloud thinning has developed.
   These warmer surface temperatures, coupled with upper 70s
   boundary-layer dewpoints gradually spreading northward should allow
   for surface-based convective inflow. The MLB VWP depicts modest
   low-level hodograph curvature owing to backed surface winds beneath
   strengthening south-southeasterly flow. Farther west, the VWP
   hodograph from TBW is much larger (500-600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), though
   buoyancy is much weaker with westward extent. 

   From Lake Okeechobee northward to around Orlando FL, a favorable
   overlap of the surface-based buoyancy and large looping low-level
   hodographs should prove favorable for increasing tornado potential
   during the next few hours. This is especially the case as a broken
   band of low-topped supercells spread northward across this locally
   favorable environment (two TDSs recently observed with this activity
   over Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties).

   ..Weinman.. 09/28/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27248117 27438141 27798167 28168177 28428161 28478133
               28438105 28328083 28178072 27818049 27318034 27118048
               27118089 27248117