Click-to-scroll-up Image
Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1842
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1842 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1842
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of central and east-central FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 546...

   Valid 281727Z - 281915Z


   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 546 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of a few tornadoes should gradually increase
   across parts of central and east-central FL this afternoon, with a
   potential focus from Lake Okeechobee northward to near Orlando FL
   during the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate upper 70s/lower
   80s surface temperatures from Lake Okeechobee northeastward toward
   Melbourne FL, where at least modest cloud thinning has developed.
   These warmer surface temperatures, coupled with upper 70s
   boundary-layer dewpoints gradually spreading northward should allow
   for surface-based convective inflow. The MLB VWP depicts modest
   low-level hodograph curvature owing to backed surface winds beneath
   strengthening south-southeasterly flow. Farther west, the VWP
   hodograph from TBW is much larger (500-600 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH), though
   buoyancy is much weaker with westward extent. 

   From Lake Okeechobee northward to around Orlando FL, a favorable
   overlap of the surface-based buoyancy and large looping low-level
   hodographs should prove favorable for increasing tornado potential
   during the next few hours. This is especially the case as a broken
   band of low-topped supercells spread northward across this locally
   favorable environment (two TDSs recently observed with this activity
   over Okeechobee and St. Lucie Counties).

   ..Weinman.. 09/28/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   27248117 27438141 27798167 28168177 28428161 28478133
               28438105 28328083 28178072 27818049 27318034 27118048
               27118089 27248117 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: September 28, 2022
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities