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Mesoscale Discussion 2026
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   Mesoscale Discussion 2026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1202 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2022

   Areas affected...portions of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan

   Concerning...Freezing rain 

   Valid 140602Z - 141100Z

   SUMMARY...Periods of light to moderate freezing rain and mixed
   precipitation will likely continue overnight with total ice
   accumulation rates of 0.05 in/hr A transition to snow may occur
   later overnight.

   DISCUSSION...To the east of a deep surface and upper-level cyclone
   over the central and northern Plains, a broad area of wintry
   precipitation was ongoing across portions of the upper Midwest.
   Additional stratiform precipitation should develop and expand
   northward with strong mid-level warm advection occurring. Mid-level
   warming should continue overnight as the cyclones warm conveyor
   shifts northward into WI and MN. A prominent 1-2C warm nose will
   favor freezing rain and mixed precipitation types. Some hi-res
   models show heavier shower/weak convective elements may develop and
   support locally heavier ice accumulations as the maximum in dynamic
   lift and any weak slantwise/upright instability are released. Total
   ice accumulations of 0.05 to 0.1 in/hr inches are possible over the
   next several hours. A transition to mixed p-type or snow will be
   possible after 10z as cooler air shifts eastward.

   ..Lyons.. 12/14/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46548938 46398868 46228847 46008843 45608849 45138865
               44888919 44948936 45029009 45089058 45369138 46129237
               46839273 47099225 46529038 46548938 

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Page last modified: December 14, 2022
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