Mesoscale Discussion 0030
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0919 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

   Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10...

   Valid 040319Z - 040445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Convection will continue to increase across the lower
   Mississippi Valley this evening. Attendant severe risk will also
   increase with it.

   DISCUSSION...Low-latitude short-wave trough ejecting across TX
   appears to be influencing the boundary layer downstream over the
   lower MS Valley. Latest diagnostic data suggests low-level
   confluence is sharpening across southeast LA into central MS and
   this is coincident with upward-evolving convection. With time the
   boundary will surge east and a corridor of frontal convection should
   advance across the lower MS Valley into western AL. While strong
   shear continues to favor some supercell development, convective mode
   may become more linear dominant, though embedded supercells are
   certainly possible.

   ..Darrow.. 01/04/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30309143 32599024 33868865 32998840 30419014 30309143