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Mesoscale Discussion 716
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0716
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 PM CDT Sun May 07 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southern and central Nebraska and
   northern KS.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...

   Valid 072201Z - 072330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and hail will continue across
   WW196. Upscale growth into an organized cluster favoring damaging
   gusts is possible later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2150 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
   clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of
   western NE and northwestern KS. Located within a westward extending
   filament of higher thetaE along and north of a stationary front,
   these storms will continue to move eastward into a relatively warm
   and well-mixed air mass, with surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
   F. Steep mid and low-level lapse rates were supporting 1000 J/kg of
   MLCAPE and should be sufficient for continued storm maintenance.
   Area VAD/VWPs also favor a continued severe risk with 40-50 kt of
   effective shear and a high-based supercell/organized cluster storm
   mode. Large hail and strong wind gusts will remain possible across
   much of WW196 as storms track eastward over the next couple of
   hours. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests some upscale growth of
   surface cold pools is possible given the high-based nature of the
   ongoing storms. Should a cluster develop and move eastward, an
   increase in damaging wind potential may occur late this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 05/07/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41919925 40339950 39339976 39300162 39400194 39530230
               39880233 40670207 41170174 41860068 41989987 41919925 

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