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Mesoscale Discussion 844
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0844
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada...northwestern Utah
   and southern Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231850Z - 232115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will increase in coverage early
   this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
   possible but coverage is expected to be too low for a weather watch.

   DISCUSSION...On the eastern fringes of a broad upper-level low over
   portions of the Pacific Northwest, early afternoon visible imagery
   showed deepening thunderstorms along the higher terrain of
   northeastern NV and western UT. As subtle height falls and diurnal
   heating continue ahead of the upper low, additional thunderstorms
   are forecast to evolve across portions of the northern Great Basin
   this afternoon. Despite limited surface moisture, diurnal heating
   and steep low/mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km were helping support
   500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE from northeastern NV to southern ID. Stronger
   mid-level flow associated with the trough is displaced to the west
   of buoyancy plume suggesting storm organization will be limited.
   However, glancing influence of effective shear near 25 kt may
   support a few more persistent multi-cell updrafts into the early
   evening. With steep low-level lapse rates and LCL heights in excess
   of 2km, the primary severe threat with these storms will be isolated
   strong to severe wind gusts from enhanced downdrafts. Given the
   coverage of organized storms and the associated severe risk is
   expected to remain modest, a weather watch is unlikely this

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40361682 42671457 43111396 43101291 42931251 41821190
               40911229 39681274 39111371 38921463 38941548 39191624

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