Mesoscale Discussion 0845
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Areas affected...Far eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle and
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 231928Z - 232100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase later this
afternoon, with scattered severe hail/wind eventually possible as
storms mature. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 20-21
DISCUSSION...AT 1915 UTC, a strong thunderstorm is ongoing across
far northeast NM in the vicinity of a minor MCV, while high-based
cumulus is increasing farther south across eastern NM. Deep-layer
flow is very weak in the immediate vicinity of the MCV, but modestly
increases farther south, where westerly midlevel flow of 25-30 kt is
supporting sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
Continued diurnal heating will eventually result in the development
of scattered high-based thunderstorms. Initial activity may pose a
threat of localized severe gusts and some hail, given the presence
of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low/midlevel
With time, outflow-dominant storms will likely spread eastward into
a larger portion of the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains.
Convective mode becomes increasingly uncertain with time, but any
remaining semi-discrete cells by late afternoon/early evening may
begin to pose a greater threat for hail (potentially in excess of 2
inches in diameter) as they move into an increasingly unstable
environment. Otherwise, the threat for outflow-driven severe gusts
will continue, and possibly increase by early evening depending on
the timing and extent of upscale growth.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 20-21 UTC in order
to address the threats described above.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35780375 35990289 35320177 34670081 32860080 32150096
32430216 32820297 33280339 34860359 35780375