Mesoscale Discussion 0845
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Areas affected...Far eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle and
   South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 231928Z - 232100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase later this
   afternoon, with scattered severe hail/wind eventually possible as
   storms mature. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 20-21
   UTC.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1915 UTC, a strong thunderstorm is ongoing across
   far northeast NM in the vicinity of a minor MCV, while high-based
   cumulus is increasing farther south across eastern NM. Deep-layer
   flow is very weak in the immediate vicinity of the MCV, but modestly
   increases farther south, where westerly midlevel flow of 25-30 kt is
   supporting sufficient effective shear for some storm organization.
   Continued diurnal heating will eventually result in the development
   of scattered high-based thunderstorms. Initial activity may pose a
   threat of localized severe gusts and some hail, given the presence
   of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) and steep low/midlevel
   lapse rates. 

   With time, outflow-dominant storms will likely spread eastward into
   a larger portion of the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains.
   Convective mode becomes increasingly uncertain with time, but any
   remaining semi-discrete cells by late afternoon/early evening may
   begin to pose a greater threat for hail (potentially in excess of 2
   inches in diameter) as they move into an increasingly unstable
   environment. Otherwise, the threat for outflow-driven severe gusts
   will continue, and possibly increase by early evening depending on
   the timing and extent of upscale growth. 

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely by 20-21 UTC in order
   to address the threats described above.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/23/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35780375 35990289 35320177 34670081 32860080 32150096
               32430216 32820297 33280339 34860359 35780375