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Mesoscale Discussion 846
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0846
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231937Z - 232100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated
   damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1930 UTC, regional radar analysis depicted
   scattered thunderstorms ongoing across the FL Panhandle ahead of a
   weak MCV over southern AL. Despite poor mid-level lapse rates, the
   seasonably warm and moist Gulf Coast air mass was supporting
   moderate buoyancy sufficient for robust updrafts. Slight enhancement
   of mid-level flow from the MCV was noted on area VADs with 20-25 kt
   of effective shear. While not overly strong, the enhanced shear in
   combination with multiple sea breeze boundaries may support a few
   organized multi-cells and transient supercell structures across the
   FL Panhandle this afternoon. Given the moderate buoyancy, marginally
   severe hail will be possible with the strongest cores. Damaging
   gusts from sporadic downbursts with the more persistent clusters may
   also be possible. The limited potential for storm organization and
   uncertainty on the longevity of any severe threat suggests a weather
   watch is unlikely this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30278704 30668730 30858720 30908716 31018633 30598440
               30408378 30308371 30068357 29958367 29758461 29638499
               29598529 29958567 30118606 30278704 

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