Mesoscale Discussion 0847
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Areas affected...,portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232049Z - 232145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A persistent storm and some additional convection may pose
   a risk for a few damaging gusts and hail this afternoon. A weather
   watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2040 UTC, regional radar showed a persistent
   thunderstorm over parts of Montgomery County TX. Located ahead of a
   remnant MCV and along an air mass boundary, this storm has shown
   occasional organization with a recent gusts to 44 and 42 kt recorded
   near Huntsville, and Conroe, TX respectively. Ahead of the storm, a
   sufficiently unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will
   likely allow for continued updraft maintenance. Additional
   convective development was noted ahead of this storm this afternoon
   suggesting some upscale growth is possible. Vertical shear is weak
   at 20-25 kt. However, enhanced convergence south of the MCV and
   along the air mass boundary may support a low-end risk for damaging
   wind gusts and some marginally severe hail as these storms move
   across the Houston Metro over the next couple of hours. Given the
   limited convective coverage a weather watch is unlikely.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30559562 30639553 30519530 30379512 30089493 29739481
               29349475 29179480 28899507 29109519 29549553 29909565
               30369565 30559562