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Mesoscale Discussion 849
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0849
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Areas affected...portions of north west Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 232355Z - 240100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue downstream of WW233. A watch
   will likely be needed within the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Storms ongoing in WW233 are starting to grow upscale
   along developing outflow and are expected to continue before moving
   southeast into portions of north-west Texas. As this occurs, threat
   will gradually transition from hail to damaging winds. Mostly sunny
   skies and daytime heating and dew points in the 60s have supported
   an axis of MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg, which will allow
   maintenance and upscale growth of ongoing storms well downstream
   through the evening. A watch southeast of WW233 will be needed
   within the next hour.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/23/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34550089 34690084 34720042 34579990 34209940 33999909
               33599838 33319814 32799805 32349798 31729794 31349798
               31079813 30929835 30919868 30899891 30969915 31079954
               31149968 31199986 31300003 31590030 32180060 34550089 

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