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Mesoscale Discussion 852
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MD 852 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0852
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...Parts of central/south FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241748Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will continue to increase in coverage this
   afternoon, with localized damaging wind and perhaps some hail
   possible. WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Seasonably cool midlevel temperatures (around -11 C)
   were noted on the 12Z TBW and MFL soundings this morning, in
   association with a weak but rather broad upper-level trough
   extending from parts of the Southeast into the central/eastern Gulf
   of Mexico. Robust diurnal heating beneath these cool temperatures
   aloft will result in moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of
   1500-3000 J/kg, greater with southward extent) with minimal MLCINH,
   and storm coverage will continue to increase through the afternoon. 

   The primary foci for storm initiation will likely be sea breezes and
   a weak cold front across the central peninsula. With generally weak
   low-level flow and only modest mid/upper-level flow, storms may tend
   to be rather disorganized, though some brief uptick in organization
   could occur with storm mergers and/or cells that remain rooted near
   one of the boundaries across the area. Localized damaging wind gusts
   will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters, with some hail
   also possible given the cooler temperatures aloft and favorable
   buoyancy. With the severe threat expected to generally be isolated
   and somewhat disorganized, watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28248261 28498132 28278083 28098060 26878010 25658015
               25368023 25238049 25588107 26208147 26458191 27128245
               27548266 27848277 28248261 

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