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Mesoscale Discussion 853
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MD 853 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0853
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...Northern NV...Southern ID...Northwest UT...Western

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241903Z - 242130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
   possible this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased from northern NV into
   far southern ID, immediately in advance of a mid/upper-level
   shortwave trough across northwest NV. Modestly enhanced midlevel
   flow and effective shear east/northeast of the shortwave may
   eventually support some modestly organized storms, as MLCAPE
   increases into the 500-1500 J/kg range through the afternoon. The
   greatest storm coverage is expected in closer proximity to the
   shortwave from northeast NV into southern ID, though more isolated
   storms will continue to develop across favored higher terrain areas
   across northern UT and western WY. Modestly steep midlevel lapse
   rates will support some isolated hail potential, while the strongest
   outflow-dominant cells/clusters will also be capable of localized
   severe gusts. With the threat expected to remain rather isolated,
   watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41491744 43991232 44691105 44051018 43830982 43291003
               40561071 39801116 39601308 39291524 39001714 39001755
               39731762 41491744 

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