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Mesoscale Discussion 854
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MD 854 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0854
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0242 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico into the western
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 241942Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely evolve off of the
   higher terrain and dryline this afternoon. Supercells capable of
   large to very large hail are likely. A couple of tornadoes are also
   possible. A Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a subtle mid-level perturbation across the
   southern High Plains, afternoon satellite imagery showed towering
   cumulus and incipient thunderstorms developing along the higher
   terrain of northeastern NM. As diurnal heating continues, subtle
   forcing for ascent from the mid-level wave and upslope flow will
   erode remaining inhibition and allow for robust thunderstorm
   development this afternoon. Mid to upper 50s dewpoints, along with
   steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will support a broad plume
   of moderate (1500-2500 J/kg) MLCAPE. While modest in the low-levels
   owing to weak surface flow, RAP forecast hodographs are elongated in
   the mid and upper levels supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt.
   Weak forcing along the terrain and a diffuse dryline should allow
   for relatively discrete storms to develop and organize into
   splitting supercells through the afternoon. 

   As storms develop and track east/southeastward, steep mid-level
   lapse rates, modest low-level shear, and a supercell mode will be
   very favorable for large to very large hail initially. Weak
   low-level flow should strengthen into the evening hours with the
   development of the low-level jet. Some localized enhancement of
   low-level shear is also possible along a remnant outflow boundary
   across portions of the western TX Panhandle. Given the supercell
   mode and expected discrete nature of storms, a couple of tornadoes
   are possible. Experimental WOFS and Hi-res CAM guidance suggest
   storm development will likely occur within the next 1-2 hours. Given
   the potential for supercells within a favorable parameter space, a
   Weather Watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36960268 36830228 36370212 32380254 32210260 32020277
               31860309 32090351 36330463 36620466 36820458 36930429
               36930401 36960268 

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