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Mesoscale Discussion 855
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MD 855 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0855
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...Southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242046Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated large hail and severe gusts
   will be possible into early evening.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell is ongoing at 2045 UTC near the Las Animas
   (Colorado) and Union (New Mexico) county line, with other
   intensifying storms noted farther west across Huerfano County, CO.
   Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will continue to
   support the potential for vigorous updrafts through the remainder of
   the afternoon into early evening. The strongest deep-layer
   flow/shear is expected to remain farther south across eastern NM and
   west TX, but weekly veering wind profiles (as noted on the PUX VWP)
   are supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for some
   storm organization and at least transient supercell structures. 

   While the strongest supercells are expected to remain south of the
   CO border, strong to potentially severe storms may continue to
   develop near the higher terrain, with some left-splitting supercells
   also potentially moving into southeast CO from northeast NM. Large
   hail is likely to be the most prominent hazard, though localized
   severe gusts will also be possible, especially if there are any
   outflow mergers and modest upscale growth. 

   With the organized severe threat expected to remain relatively
   localized over southeast CO, watch issuance is considered unlikely,
   though this will be reevaluated depending on short-term
   observational trends through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37050380 37090479 37600498 38190491 38450455 38160308
               37780275 37250264 37060286 37050380 

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