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Mesoscale Discussion 857
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MD 857 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0857
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0504 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242204Z - 250000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this
   evening over parts of eastern Montana.  Large hail and gusty winds
   are possible.  A watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
   from eastern Phillips County MT southwestward to west of Billings. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field that clearly shows the
   front position.  Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form along
   and ahead of front, in a moderately moist and unstable air mass
   (dewpoints in the upper 50s and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg).  Steep
   mid-level lapse rates will promote robust updrafts, but rather weak
   southerly flow through the low/mid troposphere will limit overall
   convective organization (effective shear < 25 knots).  A few
   organized multicell storms capable of hail and gusty winds are
   expected for the next few hours, but current indications are that
   the majority of storms will remain below severe limits.  Therefore
   not currently planning on watch issuance.

   ..Hart/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   48960520 46860525 44870616 44470710 45050812 45870897
               46850782 47780759 49030774 48960520 

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