|Mesoscale Discussion 857|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0504 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Areas affected...Eastern Montana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242204Z - 250000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this
evening over parts of eastern Montana. Large hail and gusty winds
are possible. A watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
from eastern Phillips County MT southwestward to west of Billings.
Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field that clearly shows the
front position. Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form along
and ahead of front, in a moderately moist and unstable air mass
(dewpoints in the upper 50s and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote robust updrafts, but rather weak
southerly flow through the low/mid troposphere will limit overall
convective organization (effective shear < 25 knots). A few
organized multicell storms capable of hail and gusty winds are
expected for the next few hours, but current indications are that
the majority of storms will remain below severe limits. Therefore
not currently planning on watch issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 48960520 46860525 44870616 44470710 45050812 45870897
46850782 47780759 49030774 48960520
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