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Mesoscale Discussion 858
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MD 858 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0858
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma and
   Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

   Valid 242243Z - 250045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. Large hail and gusty
   winds continue to be the main hazards with ongoing storms.

   DISCUSSION...Storm development has been ongoing across portions of
   northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado. Storms are mixed
   mode with semi-discrete and clustered supercells ongoing. Mode
   within this region will likely be dictated by boundary interactions
   and storm mergers, as thunderstorms continue to develop and move
   toward the Texas border through the evening. The axis of most
   favorable instability and deep-layer shear remains across the
   Texas/New Mexico border. Storms may become more organized as they
   move within this regime, with large hail and gusty winds as the main
   concern in the near term. 

   CAM guidance consensus suggests a broken line may develop toward the
   evening, with embedded supercell structures. Around 02-03z, a
   low-level jet will develop across southwestern Texas into the Texas
   Panhandle. The increase in surface flow will lead to more curved
   low-level hodograph shape and increasing potential for a tornado or
   two, if storm mode can maintain embedded supercell circulations.
   Should more upscale growth occur, the main threat may shift to
   damaging winds.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36990396 36980361 36980316 36850264 36650248 36490240
               36300228 35960224 35720222 35480226 35280231 35140242
               35030265 34970292 34960328 35000357 35080380 35210466
               35290505 35670506 35870501 36210477 36750412 36990396 

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