|Mesoscale Discussion 858|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0858
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023
Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico and western Oklahoma and
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...
Valid 242243Z - 250045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. Large hail and gusty
winds continue to be the main hazards with ongoing storms.
DISCUSSION...Storm development has been ongoing across portions of
northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado. Storms are mixed
mode with semi-discrete and clustered supercells ongoing. Mode
within this region will likely be dictated by boundary interactions
and storm mergers, as thunderstorms continue to develop and move
toward the Texas border through the evening. The axis of most
favorable instability and deep-layer shear remains across the
Texas/New Mexico border. Storms may become more organized as they
move within this regime, with large hail and gusty winds as the main
concern in the near term.
CAM guidance consensus suggests a broken line may develop toward the
evening, with embedded supercell structures. Around 02-03z, a
low-level jet will develop across southwestern Texas into the Texas
Panhandle. The increase in surface flow will lead to more curved
low-level hodograph shape and increasing potential for a tornado or
two, if storm mode can maintain embedded supercell circulations.
Should more upscale growth occur, the main threat may shift to
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36990396 36980361 36980316 36850264 36650248 36490240
36300228 35960224 35720222 35480226 35280231 35140242
35030265 34970292 34960328 35000357 35080380 35210466
35290505 35670506 35870501 36210477 36750412 36990396
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