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Mesoscale Discussion 859
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MD 859 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0859
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0734 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and portions of northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

   Valid 250034Z - 250130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235

   SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW235. There is a
   conditional risk across the far southern portion of the watch for
   large hail, gusty winds, and a tornado or two into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...A storm ongoing near Tucumcari, NM has produced 2 inch
   hail along with significant wind gusts as high as 75 mph in the last
   hour. Additional thunderstorm development is occurring along
   developing outflow emanating from this storm across south-central
   Quay and Curry Counties. Expect additional development further south
   in the next couple of hours with potential for gusty winds and large

   Further south in WW235, uncertainty grows with a conditional threat
   through the evening. Recently, an area of more pronounced cumulus
   development was ongoing across Chaves County. Surface observations
   indicate that mixing has been occurring with the surface dew point
   dropping into the upper 40s from the early afternoon mid 50s.
   Visible satellite has shown many failed attempts at initiation
   within this area and further west along the dryline. One weak cell
   was able to initiate but has struggled to intensify. Day Cloud Phase
   Distinction satellite imagery continues to show deepening cu with
   evidence of glaciation. As the low level jet intensifies this
   evening, moisture should increase along with low-level flow. If a
   cell can successfully initiate in this regime and track eastward, a
   conditional threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado will
   be possible through the evening.

   ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34480399 34800375 35000351 35010315 34990259 34910238
               34700217 34260205 33890198 33430203 33200213 33050245
               32800308 32840347 32990381 34480399 

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