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Mesoscale Discussion 863
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MD 863 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0863
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

   Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

   Valid 250726Z - 250930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236

   SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
   continue for a couple more hours. However, the threat should become
   more isolated with time and additional weather watch issuance is not

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Lubbock
   shows several supercells embedded in a cluster of strong to severe
   storms from near the New Mexico-Texas state line extending to just
   southwest of Lubbock. The storms are associated with a subtle
   shortwave trough riding eastward over the top of an upper-level
   ridge. The cluster is located behind an outflow boundary that is
   surging southward across west Texas. Although instability is weak,
   moderate deep-layer shear is evident on RAP analysis, with 0-6 km
   shear mostly between 35 and 40 knots across much of west Texas. The
   storms should remain organized in this environment for another hour
   or two, moving east-southeastward across west Texas. Rotating cells
   could produced isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be
   possible. The severe threat should become isolated as instability
   weakens, and the outflow boundary continues to surge southward.

   ..Broyles.. 05/25/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33840316 33670214 33380145 33150126 32820121 32630133
               32520167 32560200 32750252 33110319 33290341 33450355
               33640358 33780350 33860338 33840316 

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