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Mesoscale Discussion 871
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0871
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 260706Z - 260900Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible over
   the next few hours from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. A small
   severe thunderstorm watch may be needed, depending upon convective
   trends over the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows an MCS from
   northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms are
   ongoing along the southwestern edge of the MCS, where the RAP has
   MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Additional storms have
   recently initiated further south, in the area southwest of Clovis.
   These storms are likely developing in response to warm advection
   associated with the strengthening low-level jet. In addition to the
   instability, moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the
   southern Plains. The Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 45 to 50 kt of 0-6 km
   shear, which will support continued severe storm development. Wind
   damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The
   duration of the severe threat remains uncertain. Convective trends
   will be watched over the next hour to determine whether an
   additional watch will be needed.

   ..Broyles.. 05/26/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34320185 33780224 33950361 34350430 34910411 35040326
               34740213 34320185 

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