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Mesoscale Discussion 1082
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into
   western/southern OK and western north TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...

   Valid 152152Z - 152315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will
   remain a threat with multiple supercells.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells that developed over southwestern
   OK have matured as they approach Lawton OK. Very large hail up to
   2.75" has been reported with one of these cells, and the threat for
   giant hail (3-4+ inches) will continue with any supercell given the
   very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Both of
   these cells have recently exhibited rightward deviant motion, and
   are ingesting sufficient low-level helicity to support updraft
   rotation. Indeed, the leading cell has shown signs of intense
   low-level rotation in the past 15-20 minutes, and a tornado may
   occur. Destructive RFD winds may occur as well.

   Additional intense supercells will likely develop rapidly in the
   next couple of hours across the eastern TX Panhandle into western
   north TX along/east of a surface dryline. Very large hail,
   severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible as these
   supercells strengthen into western OK and western north TX. A more
   favored location for tornadoes may exist across west-central into
   southwestern OK along/near the intersection of the dryline and what
   appears to be an outflow/instability gradient laid out from the
   leading pair of supercells. Low-level winds are backed to more
   easterly across this area, which should locally enhance effective
   SRH and tornado potential with any sustained supercell.

   Finally, severe/damaging wind potential will likely increase across
   the far eastern OK Panhandle into northwestern OK over the next
   couple of hours. Convection in southwestern KS has grown upscale
   into an MCS with multiple measured severe wind gusts up to 56 kt.
   Very large hail and tornadoes will also remain a concern with any
   embedded supercells, particularly with southward extent where
   convection may remain semi-discrete.

   ..Gleason.. 06/15/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36709939 35399842 34419735 33959720 34029769 33709849
               33759957 34260033 34840070 35440097 36690097 36970023
               36709939 

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Page last modified: June 15, 2023
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