Mesoscale Discussion 1336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1006 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

   Areas affected...northeastern Missouri...southeastern Iowa...west
   central into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

   Valid 291506Z - 291700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms likely will maintain
   intensity into early afternoon, overspreading much of west central
   and central Illinois by 1 PM CDT.  A new severe weather watch will
   be issued shortly.

   DISCUSSION...The organizing convective system has developed strong
   westerly descending rear inflow, with recent peak surface gusts of
   58 and 56 kts at Lamoni IA and Kirskville MO, respectively.  This
   convection is embedded within 30 kt deep-layer westerly mean ambient
   flow  (around the northern periphery of the large-scale mid-level
   ridging centered west of the lower Mississippi Valley), with 45+ kt
   easterly storm motion allowing for moderately strong easterly
   near-surface inflow.

   This is contributing to sufficient lift above the outflow to
   overcome substantial mid-level inhibition evident in forecast
   soundings, with  a seasonably moist boundary-layer characterized by
   large potential instability likely to maintain intensity into and
   across much of west central and central Illinois through 16-18Z.

   ..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40969143 41018951 40668857 39708905 39328981 39499141
               39579259 40259175 40969143