Mesoscale Discussion 1342
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

   Areas affected...far northeast NM...southeast CO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292003Z - 292200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large hail (diameter 1 to 1.75
   inches) and severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger
   storms this afternoon.  It is uncertain whether the isolated
   coverage of severe storms will necessitate a severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar imagery composite shows two
   small thunderstorm clusters near I-25 straddling the NM/CO border. 
   Surface conditions to the northeast and downstream of these storms
   is relatively moist with mid 50s to 60 deg F dewpoints. 
   Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s and steep 0-3 km lapse
   rates are in place ahead of the ongoing convection.  It seems
   plausible the risk for severe gusts may increase through this
   afternoon as additional storms develop and some of the outflows
   congeal.  Isolated large hail is possible with the stronger updrafts
   due to steep low to mid-level lapse rates, but the risk for severe
   gusts may become the primary hazard towards late afternoon/early
   evening coincident with storms moving into a slightly more
   moisture-rich airmass and evaporative potential increases.

   ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/29/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38030187 36210378 36100437 36220485 36500513 36890506
               37600466 38700361 38890296 38890254 38740208 38530189
               38030187